F1 Podium Predictions
What's Your Podium Prediction for upcoming GP?
United States Grand PrixAustin · round 18 of 23The Predictor F1-Fansite data model
Championship form and recent form. The starting grid joins in after qualifying, then the chances update.
Kimi AntonelliMercedes · #1237%to win
Max VerstappenRed Bull · #314%to win
George RussellMercedes · #639.5%to winPredict the podium
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Log in or sign upAll 22 drivers: win, podium and points chances
| # | Driver | Win | Podium | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kimi AntonelliMercedes | 37% | 80% | 100% | P1 in the championship · 4 podiums in the last 5 |
| 2 | Max VerstappenRed Bull | 14% | 46% | 98% | P4 in the championship · 5 podiums in the last 5 |
| 3 | George RussellMercedes | 9.5% | 32% | 95% | P2 in the championship · 2 podiums in the last 5 |
| 4 | Charles LeclercFerrari | 8.2% | 28% | 93% | P5 in the championship · 1 podium in the last 5, 1 DNF |
| 5 | Lewis HamiltonFerrari | 7.7% | 29% | 93% | P3 in the championship · 1 podium in the last 5, 1 DNF |
| 6 | Lando NorrisMcLaren | 6.8% | 23% | 88% | P6 in the championship · 1 podium in the last 5, 1 DNF |
| 7 | Oscar PiastriMcLaren | 3.6% | 14% | 74% | P7 in the championship · no podium in the last 5 |
| 8 | Isack HadjarRed Bull | 3.2% | 11% | 66% | P8 in the championship · 1 podium in the last 5 |
| 9 | Liam LawsonRacing Bulls | 1.6% | 6.7% | 47% | P9 in the championship · no podium in the last 5 |
| 10 | Arvid LindbladRacing Bulls | 1.2% | 4.8% | 36% | P11 in the championship · no podium in the last 5 |
| 11 | Nico HülkenbergAudi | 0.9% | 3.4% | 26% | P14 in the championship · no podium in the last 5 |
| 12 | Pierre GaslyAlpine | 0.8% | 2.8% | 25% | P10 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF |
| 13 | Esteban OconHaas | 0.8% | 2.5% | 21% | P18 in the championship · no podium in the last 5 |
| 14 | Franco ColapintoAlpine | 0.8% | 2.9% | 22% | P12 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 2 DNFs |
| 15 | Oliver BearmanHaas | 0.7% | 2.8% | 22% | P13 in the championship · no podium in the last 5 |
| 16 | Carlos SainzWilliams | 0.5% | 2.1% | 16% | P17 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF |
| 17 | Gabriel BortoletoAudi | 0.5% | 2.0% | 16% | P15 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF |
| 18 | Valtteri BottasCadillac | 0.4% | 1.4% | 12% | P22 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF |
| 19 | Fernando AlonsoAston Martin | 0.4% | 1.7% | 14% | P16 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 2 DNFs |
| 20 | Lance StrollAston Martin | 0.4% | 1.4% | 11% | P23 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 4 DNFs |
| 21 | Alex AlbonWilliams | 0.4% | 1.4% | 12% | P19 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 3 DNFs |
| 22 | Sergio PérezCadillac | 0.4% | 1.3% | 13% | P21 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF |
Podium = chance of a top-three finish, Points = chance of a top-ten. Rounded; the win column adds up to 100%.
Season standings · 2026
How the Predictor works
No bookmakers, no odds: every number comes from the F1-Fansite results database. Each driver gets a strength score from the factors below; the race is then simulated 10,000 times and we count how often each driver wins, finishes on the podium or scores points. It does not know about weather or reliability, and it says so. Grid penalties count as soon as the official starting grid is in.
Before qualifying the model is honest about the odds: three or four candidates share most of the chance. After qualifying the grid takes over and the call sharpens.
Calibration this season: when it said 7%, it happened 0% of the time; when it said 15%, it happened 7% of the time.
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Kimi, Max and George top 3 but expecting some carnage and high attrition rate.
Godd luck everyone.