Have 2026 F1 Rule Changes Shifted Championship Odds?

Formula One is gearing up for its return after an extended break through April, as motor racing’s biggest competition heads to Miami on Sunday, May 3.

However, there could be a new feel to the Grand Prix after new updates to the regulations were confirmed by the FIA, following complaints from drivers about safety concerns and dissatisfaction voiced regarding energy management during races.

Consequently, several revisions have been made, including limiting recharge in qualifying to seven megajoules instead of eight, while there has been an increase in the recharge limit when super-clipping - how cars recover energy at full throttle - from 250 kW to 350 kW, in an attempt to reduce the need for drivers to lift and coast at the end of straights.

With other adjustments such as capping energy boost limits to 150 kW and the amount of power available through energy recovery systems in wet races, there have been plenty of developments ahead of Miami. But how have the new rules, along with the opening races of the season, impacted the odds in the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships?

Mercedes drivers’ dominance not expected to change

George Russell and Kimi Antonelli have looked like the strongest contenders to displace reigning champion Lando Norris at the start of the 2026 season. The British Mercedes driver claimed the Australian Grand Prix in style, but it’s his Italian teammate who sits atop the standings heading into Miami with 72 points.

The Silver Arrows have looked unmatched for pace, finishing at least 13 seconds ahead of their nearest competitors. Consequently, many bettors have frequently backed both Russell and Antonelli in the opening three races and can continue to do so by using a special bet365 bonus code.

Even after the recent changes, sportsbooks don’t expect anything to shift, ranking both as the favorites for the remainder of the season. Russell has been given the upper hand in the battle for the Drivers’ Championship, as his experience outweighs that of Antonelli.

It seems inevitable that both will be the top contenders given the current pace both cars are setting. It will be a question of whether other teams can now close the gap after the new regulation changes, particularly Ferrari, as both Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton sit behind the Mercedes duo in the current standings.

Nevertheless, bookmakers have split the Prancing Horse racers with their latest odds. Oscar Piastri is seen as a greater threat to Russell and Antonelli than Hamilton, who is listed at longer odds alongside Lando Norris. Max Verstappen, meanwhile, then trails behind the perceived six contenders.

Is the Constructors’ Championship already decided?

As with the Drivers’ Championship, the regulations have done little to alter what many believe to be an inevitable outcome in the Constructors’ Championship. Mercedes raced into a 45-point lead after the opening three races of the season thanks to Russell and Antonelli’s triumphs on the track.

Already overwhelming favorites to reclaim the team honor for the first time since 2021, team principal Toto Wolff will likely be feeling bullish about their chances with odds standing at -600. The dilemma, though, will come down to whether or not Ferrari is granted Additional Design and Upgrade Opportunities (ADUO) rather than the new regulations.

If the FIA allows their closest rivals to make in-season upgrades to their engines, it could well close the gap to the current leaders. Ferrari has been open about the fact that they hope ADUO will allow them to close the gap, with a decision due to be made after Miami.

In response, Wolff has said that he would be “disappointed” if permissions were granted. But it certainly seems that for odds to change in both championships, it will come down to upgrades made throughout the season rather than the changes to racing rules.

Please gamble responsibly. Betting odds can change quickly and should not be treated as financial advice.

About the author

Leopold

Leopold Pleijsier founded F1-Fansite.com in 2001 and has followed Formula 1 since the early 1980s. He writes about daily F1 news, race weekends, drivers and the sport’s history.

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