Can Antonelli and Mercedes Stay on Top in 2026?

The 2026 Formula 1 season has entered its decisive final phase, with Mercedes firmly in control of both championships. After 15 Grands Prix, Kimi Antonelli leads the Drivers' Championship with 302 points, while team-mate George Russell is his closest challenger on 236.

Antonelli strengthened his position with back-to-back victories at Monza and Madrid, but the Azerbaijan Grand Prix offered a reminder that the championship is far from settled. Russell converted pole position into victory in Baku, while Antonelli recovered from 16th on the grid to finish fifth.

That result reduced Antonelli's championship advantage from 81 to 66 points. With eight Grands Prix and one Sprint remaining, the Italian remains firmly in control, but Russell has given the title fight fresh momentum.

Antonelli Remains the Driver to Beat

Antonelli's rise has become one of the defining stories of the 2026 season. The Mercedes driver has won eight of the opening 15 Grands Prix and collected 12 Grand Prix podiums, establishing himself as the clear championship leader.

His campaign began with second place behind Russell in Australia before victories in China and Japan moved him to the top of the standings. Further wins followed in Miami, Canada and Monaco, before another victory at Spa strengthened his position during the European leg of the season.

The most spectacular moment came at Monza. A substantial power unit penalty left Antonelli starting the 2026 Italian Grand Prix from 19th, seemingly turning his home race into a damage limitation exercise.

Instead, Antonelli charged through the field and beat Russell to victory in front of the Italian crowd. One week later, he won again at Madrid's new Madring circuit, finishing ahead of Max Verstappen and Lando Norris to claim his eighth victory of the season.

Baku presented a very different challenge.

Antonelli qualified only 16th after a difficult session, while Russell took pole. His race initially became even harder when he dropped to 17th, but he recovered through the field and eventually finished fifth. Russell won the race ahead of Verstappen, cutting Antonelli's championship lead by 15 points.

It was not the result Antonelli wanted, but recovering 10 championship points from such a difficult starting position could still prove significant.

Russell Has Reopened the Mercedes Title Battle

George Russell is now the driver with the clearest opportunity to challenge Antonelli.

His victory in Azerbaijan was his third Grand Prix win of the season and moved him to 236 points, reducing the gap to his team-mate to 66. More importantly, Russell delivered throughout the Baku weekend, taking pole before controlling much of the race and resisting late pressure from Verstappen.

Mercedes now faces an interesting situation.

Antonelli has the advantage, but Russell remains close enough for one retirement or major setback to change the championship picture substantially. The team must therefore continue maximising its Constructors' Championship position while allowing both drivers to compete for the individual title.

That dynamic could become increasingly important as the season approaches its final rounds. Strategy calls, tyre choices and team orders may all attract greater attention if the gap between the two Mercedes drivers continues to close.

Can Norris Still Get Back in the Fight?

Lando Norris appeared to be building momentum after winning in Hungary and following that with another victory at Zandvoort.

His Dutch Grand Prix success was particularly important because it came at a point when Mercedes had controlled much of the first half of the season. Norris finished ahead of Antonelli and Russell, raising the possibility that McLaren could become a more consistent threat during the closing stages.

The races since then have not worked in his favour.

Antonelli won at both Monza and Madrid, while Norris failed to score in Azerbaijan after becoming involved in the multi-car incident that also eliminated Franco Colapinto and Pierre Gasly.

Norris therefore remains fourth in the 2026 F1 Drivers' Championship with 186 points, leaving him 116 behind Antonelli.

Mathematically, the championship remains open. Realistically, Norris needs a substantial swing in results during the remaining races if he is to close such a large deficit.

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Verstappen Is Closing In, but the Gap Remains Large

Max Verstappen's 2026 campaign has been considerably more difficult than several of his previous seasons, with Red Bull unable to match Mercedes consistently across the opening 15 Grands Prix.

His home race at Zandvoort illustrated those difficulties when he crashed out on the opening lap. Since then, however, Verstappen's results have improved significantly.

He finished third at Monza, second in Madrid and followed that with another second place in Azerbaijan. In Baku, Verstappen put Russell under heavy pressure during the closing laps and crossed the line less than two tenths behind the Mercedes.

Those results have moved Verstappen to 163 points, although he remains 139 behind Antonelli.

With eight Grands Prix remaining, the deficit is considerable. Verstappen would need not only a sustained run of strong results, but also significant points losses for Antonelli to transform his late-season improvement into a genuine championship challenge.

Nevertheless, Red Bull's recent pace gives Verstappen the opportunity to influence the title fight even if closing the entire championship gap proves difficult. Taking victories and podiums away from Antonelli or Russell could have a major effect on the battle between the Mercedes drivers.

Ferrari Remains Mercedes' Closest Constructors' Rival

Ferrari continues to occupy second place in the Constructors' Championship, with Lewis Hamilton third in the Drivers' standings on 199 points and Charles Leclerc fifth on 179.

Both Ferrari drivers have won Grands Prix this season. Hamilton took victory at Barcelona-Catalunya, while Leclerc won the British Grand Prix at Silverstone.

Leclerc added another useful result in Azerbaijan by finishing fourth, one position ahead of Antonelli, while Hamilton crossed the line sixth.

Mercedes nevertheless holds a substantial advantage in the teams' championship. Following Azerbaijan, Mercedes has 538 points compared with Ferrari's 378, giving the championship leader a 160-point margin.

The strength of the Russell-Antonelli combination has been central to that advantage. Mercedes has won 11 of the first 15 Grands Prix of the season, underlining how consistently competitive the W17 has been across very different circuit types.

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The Final Eight Races Will Decide the Championship

Following Azerbaijan, Formula 1 heads to Malaysia for the rescheduled Bahrain Grand Prix at Sepang before moving on to Singapore.

The championship then travels to Austin, Mexico City and São Paulo, followed by Las Vegas and Qatar before the season concludes at Abu Dhabi.

Singapore will also host the remaining Sprint of the season, creating another opportunity for championship points outside the eight remaining Grands Prix.

According to the official Formula 1 standings, Antonelli leads Russell by 66 points after 15 rounds. Hamilton is 103 points behind the championship leader, Norris 116, Leclerc 123 and Verstappen 139.

Antonelli therefore remains in a powerful position, but Azerbaijan showed how quickly the picture can change.

His task is no longer to prove that he belongs in the championship fight. Eight victories, 12 Grand Prix podiums and more than 300 championship points have already established that.

Instead, Antonelli must manage the pressure of protecting a substantial lead while continuing to extract performance from a car capable of winning races. Reliability problems, strategic errors or incidents could still reduce his advantage rapidly.

Russell, meanwhile, has little reason to back away. His Azerbaijan victory demonstrated that he can still take points out of his team-mate when the opportunity arises.

Mercedes therefore enters the final eight Grands Prix in an enviable but potentially complicated position. It has a commanding Constructors' Championship lead and both of its drivers occupy the top two positions in the Drivers' standings.

Antonelli remains the clear championship leader, but after Russell's victory in Baku, the most immediate threat may now be coming from inside his own garage.

About the author

Leopold

Leopold Pleijsier founded F1-Fansite.com in 2001 and has followed Formula 1 since the early 1980s. He writes about daily F1 news, race weekends, drivers and the sport’s history.

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