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Event: Bahrain Grand Prix
Track: Sepang International Circuit

Weather: Partly cloudy dry  32°C / 89°F
Tarmac: dry  56°C / 132°F
Humidity: 53%
Wind: 3.9 km/h North-West
Pressure: 1009 mbar

Antonelli Strikes Back as Mercedes Tops Sepang FP3

Kimi Antonelli delivered Mercedes’ strongest statement of the Bahrain Grand Prix weekend by comfortably topping final practice at Sepang, beating Max Verstappen by almost three tenths as the team’s overnight work on its major upgrade package appeared to pay off.

The championship leader produced a 1m36.302s on the soft tyre to finish 0.278s clear of Verstappen, with Isack Hadjar a further 0.280s behind in the second Red Bull. George Russell completed the top four, while Ferrari slipped to fifth and sixth with Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton.

Antonelli’s lap was comfortably the fastest of the weekend so far, improving on Verstappen’s Friday benchmark by 1.218 seconds and turning what Mercedes had described as one of its toughest Fridays of the season into a very different-looking Saturday.

Mercedes Finds the Answer Overnight

Mercedes arrived at Sepang with its first major upgrade package since Canada but struggled to make full use of it on Friday.

Russell showed good pace on the medium tyre, yet both Mercedes drivers made mistakes on their only representative soft-tyre runs in FP2. Antonelli had also trailed Russell throughout Friday, leaving the championship leader with work to do before qualifying.

Mercedes responded with an extensive overnight simulator programme. The team said its low-speed performance had been particularly disappointing on Friday, despite traditionally being one of the W17’s strengths, and simulator work continued until 04:30 UK time as engineers searched for a better set-up window.

The response on track was emphatic.

Antonelli initially went fastest with a 1m36.924s, the first time all weekend he had headed Russell, before lowering the benchmark to 1m36.302s on his final qualifying simulation.

That gave him a sizeable 0.278s advantage over Verstappen and around six tenths over Russell.

For Mercedes, Friday’s uncertainty suddenly looks much less alarming.

Verstappen Keeps Red Bull in the Fight

Verstappen was unable to match Antonelli’s final effort, but Red Bull remains firmly in contention heading into qualifying.

The Dutchman had been the fastest driver on Friday after topping FP1 with a 1m37.520s and then completing FP2 entirely on the medium compound. His first proper soft-tyre qualifying simulation of the weekend therefore did not arrive until the closing stages of FP3.

When it did, Verstappen produced a 1m36.580s, enough for second but 0.278s shy of Antonelli.

Hadjar reinforced Red Bull’s position by finishing third. He briefly went fastest during the first wave of serious soft-tyre runs before Antonelli and Verstappen responded, continuing a weekend in which he has featured near the front in every session.

The Frenchman does, however, carry a five-place grid penalty for taking a new internal combustion engine, meaning his qualifying result will not translate directly into Sunday’s starting position.

With Verstappen second and Hadjar third, Red Bull appears to be Mercedes’ clearest rival going into qualifying.

Ferrari Slips Back After Friday High

Ferrari’s Saturday began less convincingly after Leclerc had topped FP2.

Leclerc finished fifth and Hamilton sixth, leaving both Ferraris behind Mercedes and Red Bull on outright pace.

There were mitigating factors.

Leclerc spent part of the session evaluating the hard tyre, becoming the only driver to use a set of C2s during FP3. That leaves him with only one fresh set available for Sunday, an interesting strategic choice given the expectation that high degradation could make this a two-stop race.

Hamilton’s programme was also disrupted. Traffic forced him to abandon one flying lap, taking the best performance out of that set of soft tyres, and Ferrari eventually used two sets in an attempt to give him another representative run.

Ferrari therefore cannot be written off, but after Leclerc’s Friday benchmark the Scuderia no longer appears to have the upper hand.

McLaren Times Hide More Than They Reveal

McLaren finished only seventh and eighth with Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, although neither driver completed an entirely clean soft-tyre lap.

The team had actually started FP3 strongly on the mediums. Norris went quickest with a 1m37.161s, at that stage the fastest lap of the weekend, while Piastri also featured near the front.

Things became less straightforward when the soft tyres went on.

Norris failed to improve significantly, while Piastri made a mistake and abandoned his attempt. That raised an intriguing question over whether McLaren simply failed to extract the C4 compound or whether its medium-tyre pace was more representative of the car’s underlying performance.

Either way, seventh and eighth almost certainly flatter McLaren’s rivals.

The team also showed strong long-run pace on Friday, leaving it very much part of the four-team battle heading into qualifying.

Soft Tyres Look Like a One-Lap Weapon

The extreme Sepang temperatures continue to make tyre preparation and management difficult.

Track temperature reached 58°C during FP3, with Pirelli’s C2, C3 and C4 compounds again having to cope with the abrasive Malaysian asphalt.

The soft in particular appeared to have a very narrow performance window.

Drivers generally struggled to improve on a second push lap, while Hamilton’s aborted first attempt demonstrated how costly traffic could be. Once the best of the tyre had gone, finding another representative qualifying lap became extremely difficult.

That could make track position in qualifying crucial. Drivers may have little margin to back off and prepare another attempt if they encounter traffic, especially with grip remaining poor away from the racing line.

A brief red flag for debris from Ollie Bearman’s car provided another disruption during the first half of the session, but running quickly resumed.

Midfield Battle Could Be Brutal

While Mercedes and Red Bull fought over the top positions, the midfield produced some remarkably small margins.

Gabriel Bortoleto finished 11th, with Fernando Alonso only 0.019s behind him. Pierre Gasly was another 0.018s back, Esteban Ocon followed just 0.011s behind his former Alpine team-mate and Liam Lawson was separated from Ocon by only 0.014s.

Those gaps suggest the fight to reach Q3 — and potentially even to escape Q1 — could be decided by tiny fractions.

Franco Colapinto and Arvid Lindblad completed the FP3 top ten, although both carry grid penalties for Sunday. Lindblad is set to start from the back after accumulating penalties for multiple new power-unit components, while Colapinto has a combined 15-place drop.

With so little between the midfield runners, one mistake or poorly timed lap could completely reshape the grid.

Antonelli Still Far From 2017 Sepang Pace

Antonelli’s 1m36.302s represented a major step from Friday, but the nine-year comparison again shows just how different the current cars are around Sepang.

When Formula 1 last raced here in 2017, Kimi Räikkönen topped FP3 for Ferrari with a 1m31.880s, ahead of Sebastian Vettel and Daniel Ricciardo.

Antonelli’s 2026 benchmark was therefore still 4.422 seconds slower than Räikkönen’s corresponding FP3 time.

Interestingly, the gap has fallen considerably compared with Friday. Leclerc’s FP2 benchmark had been 6.267s slower than Vettel’s 2017 FP2 best, suggesting the 2026 field is beginning to unlock substantially more performance as the circuit rubbers in and the teams refine their set-ups.

The ultimate 2017 benchmark remains Lewis Hamilton’s 1m30.076s pole lap, meaning Antonelli’s FP3 time is still 6.226s away from the qualifying record from Formula 1’s previous Sepang visit.

Different cars, regulations, tyres and conditions make direct comparisons imperfect, but the trend is clear: the lap times are continuing to fall quickly.

Mercedes Turns the Weekend Around

Friday night produced plenty of questions for Mercedes. By the end of FP3, the picture looked very different.

Antonelli has gone from trailing Russell throughout Friday to setting the fastest lap of the weekend by a substantial margin. Verstappen remains close enough to ensure Red Bull is a serious threat, while Hadjar’s third place confirms the RB22 is working well around Sepang.

Ferrari appears slightly less convincing than it did on Friday, while McLaren’s final positions should be treated cautiously after neither driver delivered a clean soft-tyre lap.

But the clearest development is at Mercedes.

A difficult Friday triggered an intense night of simulator work. Less than 24 hours later, Antonelli sits on top by almost three tenths.

Whether Mercedes has genuinely unlocked its upgraded car — or simply won the final practice battle — will be answered in qualifying.

FP3 Times Table 2026 Bahrain GP

Pos#DriverConstructorCar & EngineLapsTimeTyre
112Kimi AntonelliKimiAntonelliMercedesMercedes W17Mercedes W17Mercedes M17 E…121:36.302S
23Max VerstappenMaxVerstappenRed BullRed Bull RB22Red Bull RB22Red Bull Ford DM01121:36.580+0.278sS
36Isack HadjarIsackHadjarRed BullRed Bull RB22Red Bull RB22Red Bull Ford DM01151:36.860+0.558sS
463George RussellGeorgeRussellMercedesMercedes W17Mercedes W17Mercedes M17 E…111:36.912+0.610sS
516Charles LeclercCharlesLeclercFerrariFerrari SF-26Ferrari SF-26Ferrari 067/6191:37.016+0.714sS
644Lewis HamiltonLewisHamiltonFerrariFerrari SF-26Ferrari SF-26Ferrari 067/6151:37.041+0.739sS
71Lando NorrisLandoNorrisMcLarenMcLaren MCL40McLaren MCL40Mercedes M17 E…151:37.161+0.859sM
881Oscar PiastriOscarPiastriMcLarenMcLaren MCL40McLaren MCL40Mercedes M17 E…161:37.366+1.064sS
943Franco ColapintoFrancoColapintoAlpineAlpine A526Alpine A526Mercedes M17 E…201:37.920+1.618sS
1041Arvid LindbladArvidLindbladRacing BullsVCARB 03VCARB 03Red Bull Ford DM01241:38.084+1.782sS
115Gabriel BortoletoGabrielBortoletoAudiAudi R26Audi R26Audi AFR 26 Hybrid151:38.204+1.902sS
1214Fernando AlonsoFernandoAlonsoAston MartinAston Martin AMR26Aston Martin AMR26Honda RA626H131:38.223+1.921sS
1310Pierre GaslyPierreGaslyAlpineAlpine A526Alpine A526Mercedes M17 E…201:38.241+1.939sS
1431Esteban OconEstebanOconHaasHaas VF-26Haas VF-26Ferrari 067/6121:38.252+1.950sS
1530Liam LawsonLiamLawsonRacing BullsVCARB 03VCARB 03Red Bull Ford DM01171:38.266+1.964sS
1627Nico HülkenbergNicoHülkenbergAudiAudi R26Audi R26Audi AFR 26 Hybrid141:38.356+2.054sS
1787Oliver BearmanOliverBearmanHaasHaas VF-26Haas VF-26Ferrari 067/6121:38.692+2.390sS
1855Carlos SainzCarlosSainzWilliamsWilliams FW48Williams FW48Mercedes M17 E…211:38.716+2.414sS
1918Lance StrollLanceStrollAston MartinAston Martin AMR26Aston Martin AMR26Honda RA626H121:38.811+2.509sS
2023Alex AlbonAlexAlbonWilliamsWilliams FW48Williams FW48Mercedes M17 E…181:39.049+2.747sS
2177Valtteri BottasValtteriBottasCadillacCadillac MAC-26Cadillac MAC-26Ferrari 067/6141:39.931+3.629sS
2211Sergio PérezSergioPérezCadillacCadillac MAC-26Cadillac MAC-26Ferrari 067/6201:40.223+3.921sS

The quickest lap time of the last FP3 in 2017 on Sepang was 1:31,880 driven by Kimi Raikkonen with the Ferrari SF70-H.

The quickest sector times during this FP1 were:

  • Sector 1: 24.911 sec. by Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes W17 #12.
  • Sector 2: 31.661 sec. by Max Verstappen, Red Bull RB22 #3.
  • Sector 3: 39.567 sec. by Lando Norris, McLaren MCL40 #4.

✅ Don't forget to check out the 2026 Bahrain F1 Grand Prix preview

What's Your Podium Prediction for the Upcoming F1 Grand Prix?

2026 Singapore F1 GPSingapore Grand PrixSingapore · round 17 of 23

The Predictor F1-Fansite data model

Championship form and recent form. The starting grid joins in after qualifying, then the chances update.

1Kimi AntonelliKimi AntonelliMercedes · #1240%to win
2George RussellGeorge RussellMercedes · #6312%to win
3Max VerstappenMax VerstappenRed Bull · #38.2%to win

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All 22 drivers: win, podium and points chances
#DriverWinPodiumPointsWhy
1Kimi AntonelliMercedes40%82%100%P1 in the championship · 4 podiums in the last 5
2George RussellMercedes12%41%97%P2 in the championship · 3 podiums in the last 5
3Max VerstappenRed Bull8.2%30%93%P5 in the championship · 4 podiums in the last 5, 1 DNF
4Lewis HamiltonFerrari8.2%29%93%P3 in the championship · 1 podium in the last 5, 1 DNF
5Charles LeclercFerrari7.2%26%90%P4 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF
6Lando NorrisMcLaren6.7%24%89%P6 in the championship · 2 podiums in the last 5, 1 DNF
7Isack HadjarRed Bull3.9%14%72%P8 in the championship · 1 podium in the last 5
8Oscar PiastriMcLaren3.6%14%72%P7 in the championship · no podium in the last 5
9Liam LawsonRacing Bulls1.8%6.9%44%P9 in the championship · no podium in the last 5
10Arvid LindbladRacing Bulls1.5%5.5%38%P11 in the championship · no podium in the last 5
11Pierre GaslyAlpine0.9%3.7%26%P10 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF
12Nico HülkenbergAudi0.9%3.3%25%P16 in the championship · no podium in the last 5
13Franco ColapintoAlpine0.8%3.1%24%P12 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF
14Oliver BearmanHaas0.7%2.5%20%P13 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF
15Esteban OconHaas0.7%2.5%19%P18 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF
16Gabriel BortoletoAudi0.6%2.5%18%P14 in the championship · no podium in the last 5
17Carlos SainzWilliams0.5%2.1%16%P17 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF
18Fernando AlonsoAston Martin0.5%2.1%17%P15 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 2 DNFs
19Sergio PérezCadillac0.4%1.6%13%P21 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF
20Alex AlbonWilliams0.4%1.4%12%P19 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 2 DNFs
21Lance StrollAston Martin0.3%1.3%11%P23 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 4 DNFs
22Valtteri BottasCadillac0.3%1.4%11%P22 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 2 DNFs

Podium = chance of a top-three finish, Points = chance of a top-ten. Rounded; the win column adds up to 100%.

Season standings · 2026

2ShroppyflyShroppyfly28 pts
6yheeyhee10 pts
7Juandiez10 pts
8CasparovicCasparovic10 pts
9Kasra8 pts
10ipeluri7 pts
11bearman's7 pts
13Rahmi Can6 pts
14Killabee6 pts
15Carlo6 pts
16MKLMKL6 pts
17Sudhjd6 pts
18Tori Green6 pts

How the Predictor works

No bookmakers, no odds: every number comes from the F1-Fansite results database. Each driver gets a strength score from the factors below; the race is then simulated 10,000 times and we count how often each driver wins, finishes on the podium or scores points. It does not know about weather or reliability, and it says so. Grid penalties count as soon as the official starting grid is in.

60%Championship formPoints this season, relative to the leader.
40%Recent formThe last five finishes; a DNF counts as P20.
0%Starting gridHow often each grid slot has won over the last eight seasons. Joins after qualifying.

Before qualifying the model is honest about the odds: three or four candidates share most of the chance. After qualifying the grid takes over and the call sharpens.

11/16winners called
1.9/3podium drivers per race
2exact podiums
64prediction points

Calibration this season: when it said 7%, it happened 0% of the time; when it said 15%, it happened 8% of the time.

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Current Drivers Standings

After round 16 of 23 · Bahrain GP
Pos.F1 DriversPoints
1Kimi AntonelliKimi AntonelliMercedes · #12320
2George RussellGeorge RussellMercedes · #63236−84
3Lewis HamiltonLewis HamiltonFerrari · #44214−22
2026 F1 Drivers' Standings Championship

Current Teams Standings

After round 16 of 23 · Bahrain GP
Pos.F1 TeamsPoints
1MercedesMercedes W17556
2FerrariFerrari SF-26405−151
3McLarenMcLaren MCL40316−89
2026 F1 Constructors Standings 2026 Championship

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