Starting Grid 2026 Spanish Formula 1 Grand Prix

Event: Spanish Grand Prix
Track: Madring circuit

Warm-up lap starts at: 15:00 Local | 15:.00 CET | 14:00 UK | 06:00 LA | 22:00 Tokyo

Lando Norris will start the inaugural Formula 1 race at Madrid’s Madring from pole position after beating championship leader Kimi Antonelli by just 0.011s in a thrilling qualifying session. Max Verstappen starts third alongside Lewis Hamilton, putting four different teams inside the top four.

Charles Leclerc lines up fifth ahead of George Russell, while Oscar Piastri starts seventh as McLaren split the Mercedes and Ferrari contenders across the opening rows. Further back, home favourites Carlos Sainz and Fernando Alonso face a difficult Sunday after both were eliminated in Q1.

With overtaking expected to be difficult and tyre degradation potentially playing a major role, track position could prove crucial in Formula 1’s first race around the Madring. The starting grid remains provisional pending any post-qualifying penalties or stewards’ decisions.

F1 Starting Grid 2026 Spanish GP

*Penalties:

• Lance Stroll, Aston Martin AMR26 #18 - 40 place grid penalty, due to using additional power unit elements.
• Carlos Sainz, Williams FW48 Car 55 - 3 place grid penalty, due to impeding another driver.
• Oliver Bearman, Haas VF-26 #87 - Required to start from the pit lan, due to using additional power unit elements whilst under Parc Fermé.

✅ Check out our 2026 Spanish F1 Grand Prix Preview.

What's Your Podium Prediction for the upcoming F1 Grand Prix?

United States Grand PrixAustin · round 18 of 23

The Predictor F1-Fansite data model

Championship form and recent form. The starting grid joins in after qualifying, then the chances update.

1Kimi AntonelliMercedes · #1237%to win

2Max VerstappenRed Bull · #314%to win

3George RussellMercedes · #639.5%to win

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All 22 drivers: win, podium and points chances

#	Driver	Win	Podium	Points	Why
1	Kimi AntonelliMercedes	37%	80%	100%	P1 in the championship · 4 podiums in the last 5
2	Max VerstappenRed Bull	14%	46%	98%	P4 in the championship · 5 podiums in the last 5
3	George RussellMercedes	9.5%	32%	95%	P2 in the championship · 2 podiums in the last 5
4	Charles LeclercFerrari	8.2%	28%	93%	P5 in the championship · 1 podium in the last 5, 1 DNF
5	Lewis HamiltonFerrari	7.7%	29%	93%	P3 in the championship · 1 podium in the last 5, 1 DNF
6	Lando NorrisMcLaren	6.8%	23%	88%	P6 in the championship · 1 podium in the last 5, 1 DNF
7	Oscar PiastriMcLaren	3.6%	14%	74%	P7 in the championship · no podium in the last 5
8	Isack HadjarRed Bull	3.2%	11%	66%	P8 in the championship · 1 podium in the last 5
9	Liam LawsonRacing Bulls	1.6%	6.7%	47%	P9 in the championship · no podium in the last 5
10	Arvid LindbladRacing Bulls	1.2%	4.8%	36%	P11 in the championship · no podium in the last 5
11	Nico HülkenbergAudi	0.9%	3.4%	26%	P14 in the championship · no podium in the last 5
12	Pierre GaslyAlpine	0.8%	2.8%	25%	P10 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF
13	Esteban OconHaas	0.8%	2.5%	21%	P18 in the championship · no podium in the last 5
14	Franco ColapintoAlpine	0.8%	2.9%	22%	P12 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 2 DNFs
15	Oliver BearmanHaas	0.7%	2.8%	22%	P13 in the championship · no podium in the last 5
16	Carlos SainzWilliams	0.5%	2.1%	16%	P17 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF
17	Gabriel BortoletoAudi	0.5%	2.0%	16%	P15 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF
18	Valtteri BottasCadillac	0.4%	1.4%	12%	P22 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF
19	Fernando AlonsoAston Martin	0.4%	1.7%	14%	P16 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 2 DNFs
20	Lance StrollAston Martin	0.4%	1.4%	11%	P23 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 4 DNFs
21	Alex AlbonWilliams	0.4%	1.4%	12%	P19 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 3 DNFs
22	Sergio PérezCadillac	0.4%	1.3%	13%	P21 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF

Podium = chance of a top-three finish, Points = chance of a top-ten. Rounded; the win column adds up to 100%.

Season standings · 2026

PThe Predictormodel38 pts

1An Sionnach37 pts

2Shroppyfly37 pts

3Nobodysperfect31 pts

4Leopold Pleijsier28 pts

5Jere Jyrälä18 pts

6Casparovic16 pts

7ipeluri12 pts

8yhee10 pts

9Juandiez10 pts

10Kasra8 pts

11bearman's7 pts

12Mo6 pts

13Raceworks Media6 pts

14Rahmi Can6 pts

15Killabee6 pts

16Carlo6 pts

17MKL6 pts

18Sudhjd6 pts

19Tori Green6 pts

20Marcos Torres Barker6 pts

How the Predictor works

No bookmakers, no odds: every number comes from the F1-Fansite results database. Each driver gets a strength score from the factors below; the race is then simulated 10,000 times and we count how often each driver wins, finishes on the podium or scores points. It does not know about weather or reliability, and it says so. Grid penalties count as soon as the official starting grid is in.

60%Championship formPoints this season, relative to the leader.

40%Recent formThe last five finishes; a DNF counts as P20.

0%Starting gridHow often each grid slot has won over the last eight seasons. Joins after qualifying.

Before qualifying the model is honest about the odds: three or four candidates share most of the chance. After qualifying the grid takes over and the call sharpens.

12/17winners called

1.9/3podium drivers per race

2exact podiums

70prediction points

Calibration this season: when it said 7%, it happened 0% of the time; when it said 15%, it happened 7% of the time.

About the author

Leopold

Leopold Pleijsier founded F1-Fansite.com in 2001 and has followed Formula 1 since the early 1980s. He writes about daily F1 news, race weekends, drivers and the sport’s history.

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